Monthly Strategy-Oct (03-10-2011) (SELL):   "Oktober Kelabu"

• Oktober kelabu: Paska selesai window dressing September lalu, ditakutkan IHSG akan terkoreksi secara medium term dibawah level 3.000

• Faktor rupiah: Melemahnya rupiah diatas 8.700 pada penutupan bulanan Sept 30 lalu, menandakan bahwa potensi swing ditas 9.000 sangat mungkin, dan merupakan sesuatu yang dapat memberikan sentimen negatif karena banyak emitten yang mempunyai cost serta hutang dalam US$.

• Regional: Masalah di Amerika dan Eropa serta problem liquiditas global akan membuat asing menarik dana dari Indonesia (bonds dan saham) sehingga rupiah berpotensi melemah dan saham terkoreksi, walaupun secara fundamental Indonesia masih bagus.

• Domestic: Suku bunga rendah yang memicu domestik consumption serta naiknya harga import barang konsumen dapat menyebabkan inflasi (imported inflation) sehingga proyeksi angka2 ekonomi dapat berubah.

• Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price Koreksi 1-bulan:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research.

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

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