Monthly Strategy-Oct (01-11-2011) (SELL):   "Waspadai reversal turun"

• Tetap bearish: Walaupun regional dan IHSG terbawa oleh sentiment positif laporan keuangan dan penyelesaian sementara krisis Yunani namun secara keseluruhan tren pertumbuhan global masih menurun sehingga investor global akan melaukan sell off untu kembali ke asset non berisiko (US t bonds).

• Domestik: Sudah sebulan rupiah diatas Rp.8.500, sehingga kebanyakan asumsi ekononomi dan fundamental model proyeksi earnings dapat berubah.

• Interbank krisis Eropa pasca bailout Yunani: Setelah harus menanggung kerugian 10% dari asset pasca haircut 50% dari bailout Yunani, bank Eropa mempunyai opsi mencari dana di luar atau diberikan pinjaman dari Bank Sentral Euro melalu bond rasing untuk recap dana. Diperkiakan meraka akan mengambil opsi pertama yaitu mencari dana di luar dengan menjual asset di Asia terutama Indonesia yang relati masih profit.

• Valuasi: Secara PER 2012 valuasi IHSG (13x) masih diatas regional Asia pada umumnya (9-10x) dan beberapa sektor sudah terlampau mahal seperti Property yang bermain di PER 2012 15x, biasanya bila sektor tersebut bermain diatas PER IHSG maka siklus reversal turun akan terjadi.

• Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price Koreksi 1-bulan:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research.

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

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