Monthly Strategy-NOV (19-11-2011) (BUY):   "The last hurrah?"

• Jangka pendek ada rally: Secara technical stochastic bulanan IHSG memberikan short term buy signal yang di trigger oleh keberhasilan untuk bertahan diatas level psikologis 3.500 untuk 3 bulan terakhir ini sehingga potensi terjadinya rally jangka pendek untuk Nov-Desember ini.

• Domestik: Penurunan suku bunga BI rate ke 6% dan kuatnya cadangan devisa untuk intervensi rupiah serta pertumbuhan ekonomi GDP yang sesuai target dan inflasi yang masih terlihat terkendali hingga saat ini membuat pasar sulit untuk koreksi besar.

• Interbank krisis Eropa pasca bailout Yunani mereda: Pasca bailout fund diberikan ke Yunani dan Italy, terlihat ada keseriusan untuk mereka melakukan austerity measure sehingga pasar global kembali ke fundamental stock piking dan krisis interbank mulai mereda sedikit setidaknya sampai Desember dimana akan dibutuhkan lagi dana talangan dan penilaian keberhasilan austerity measure akan dilakukan.

• Valuasi: Secara PER 2012 valuasi IHSG (13x) masih diatas regional Asia pada umumnya (9-10x) namun pertumbuhan GDP dan return of equity serta earnings growth juga termasuk tinggi sehingga valuasi premium patut dipertahankan untuk saat ini.

• Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price  1-bulan:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research.

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

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