Walaupun ada beberapa kalangan berpendapat bahwa kenaikan inflasi bulan Juni lalu sebesar 0.97%  dan year on year  sebesar 5% dapat membuat BI menaikan suku bunga lagi di Agustus hingga 7%, inilah beberapa alasan untuk menangkis kemungkinan hal itu terjadi.

• Kenaikan tajam di bulan Juli lebih disebabkan oleh factor siklus perubahan harga makanan

• Cadangan devisa di bulan Juni yang naik & penurunan import 6-bulan terakhir sebesar 35% juga mengurangi potensi imported inflation

• Hal ini masih dapat menarik minat asing untuk investasi di asset rupiah seperti saham, obligasi & real estate

• Bila dilihat dari gejala inflasi Juni ini, terlhat bahwa sumber utama adalah antisipasi harga barang menjelang kenaikan Gas Elpiji, Tol, TDL serta tahun ajaran baru sekolah & bulan puasa dan diperkirakan ini cuma gejala sesaat.

Portofolio Strategy: Sector mana yang belum men-diskon scenario diatas: Property

Kelihatannya sector property belum sepenuhnya men-diskon kemungkinan BI rate akan dipertahankan  di level 6.5% Agustus nanti. Ini adalah beberapa top pick dari sector tersebut:

• 1. ASRI "Diskon ke NAVS Rp.300, NPM 30% akibat effisiensi" TP: 1- bulan-Rp.215
• 2. DILD "Earnings upgrade pasca penjualan asset" TP: 1-bulan-Rp.600
• 3. BKSL "Turnaround story pasca aquisisi oleh Bakrie" TP: 1-bulan-Rp.140

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research.  (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

     This document has been prepared by PT. HD Capital Tbk.  The information has been compiled from public source, which we believe to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Information and opinion contained herein are used to assist recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipients as of this date. Any opinion and expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and PT. HD Capital Tbk is not under obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to buy or to sell any securities. PT. HD Capital Tbk accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement or omission in any information contained in this report. No part of this report may be produced, distributed or published without the written permission of PT. HD Capital Tbk. Ó 2010. All rights reserved.