IHSG 3.300 dalam 9 minggu

IHSG akan mengalami liquidity driven rally 2-bulan (400 point dari level 2.900 ke 3.300) yang serupa dengan Maret-April lalu. Ini ada beberapa alasan mengapa hal itu dapat terulang kembali di Juni & July:

• Yuan dilepas: Appresiasi Yuan positif buat pasar global (terutama Indonesia) karena membuat nilai asset di US menurun dan dana dari US T-bond mengalir kembali ke asset berisiko seperti saham & komoditas.

• Potensi minyak naik diatas $80/b: Impact ke sector batubara (ADRO, BUMI, PTBA, ITMG) & CPO( LSIP, GZCO), positif untuk

• Balance of Payment (BOP) positif: Posisi rupiah menguat dibawah 9.200 & export batubara akan meng-offset dampak minyak sehingga BOP plus.

• Consumer play: Biaya tenaga kerja yang murah versus Negara Asean lainnya & pangsa domestic yang besar masih membuat sector consumer seperti ASII, INDF & SMGR manufacturing real sector mengalami pertumbuhan.

• High ROE justifies High PER (premium): Walaupun secara PER 2011F IHSG tidak murah (14x) (termahal no 2 di Asia), namun ROE2010 IHSG (23%) & pertumbuhan laba emitten 16-20% untuk 2010-2011 masih menarik minta investor.

• Apa yang masih murah di Indonesia: Secara PBV sector batubara (ADRO, BUMI) & telekomunikasi(TLKM) masih dibawah valuasi regional .

• Second liner play? Dengan berjalannya liquidity flow, maka pemain asing maupun local akan mencari beberapa counter lapis dua dengan PBV dibawah 2x seperti ELSA (oil and gas) & BBKP (banking UKM).

Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 9-minggu:

• 1. Batubara: ADRO (Rp.2.350), BUMI (Rp.2.100), ITMG (Rp.43.000), PTBA (Rp.17.800)

• 2. Telecoms: (TLKM) (Rp.8450)

• 3. Oil & Gas: ELSA (Rp.500)

• 4. Consumer: Astra International (ASII) (Rp54.000) & Indofood (INDF) (Rp.4.250)

• 5. Banks: Bank BRI (BBRI) (Rp.8.650), Bank BCA (Rp.6.100), Bank Bukopin (BBKP) (Rp.660)

• 6. Cement: Semen Gresik (SMGR) (Rp.9.750)

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research. 

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

     This document has been prepared by PT. HD Capital Tbk.  The information has been compiled from public source, which we believe to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Information and opinion contained herein are used to assist recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipients as of this date. Any opinion and expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and PT. HD Capital Tbk is not under obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to buy or to sell any securities. PT. HD Capital Tbk accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement or omission in any information contained in this report. No part of this report may be produced, distributed or published without the written permission of PT. HD Capital Tbk. Ó 2010. All rights reserved.